Stable Auto makes EV charging a more profitable business

Stable Auto makes EV charging a more profitable business

Stable Auto makes EV charging a more profitable business

About

Stable has found that public EV charging station utilization rates are more predictable than most people realize. Their goal is to get more companies and investors interested in EV charging using Stable's machine learning solution to predict potential ROI. This will be a big unlock for the industry, says Stable CEO Rohan Puri: "By making EV charging more profitable and reducing risk through financial forecasting, we're encouraging more companies to enter the market to deploy charging stations, accelerating our path to an all-electric future." The accurate tariff data available through Signal is essential to predicting that profitability.

Challenge

Companies getting into the EV charging business often lack a strong analytics foundation to make important investment decisions. A fast EV charger costs about $100K, so just installing ten at one location requires around $1M of capital. To make that a good investment, you’d need to know approximately how many people will show up to use the chargers, when, and critically, at what cost. 

That isn’t easy information to come by, or at least it hasn’t been. Electricity tariffs in particular tend to be opaque. So, EV charging businesses have been taking a gamble with mixed results. Generally, the industry standard for companies to consider an expansion is when a site hits over 20% utilization. Currently, 70% of (non-Tesla) EV charging stations perform below a 15% utilization rate.

For now, regulators at the state and federal level are incentivizing EV adoption, giving the whole industry a boost. Still, EV infrastructure needs to solidify its economic viability in the long term and increase utilization rates to sustain the future of EVs.

Solution

Companies use Stable’s proprietary machine learning model to evaluate portfolios of potential charging locations, forecast their returns, and deliver a full ROI estimate — all in one. Stable uses real utilization data from thousands of charging stations across the country and correlates that data with traffic levels, nearby amenities, demographics, the EV penetration rate, relevant incentives, and additional factors to determine what drives a better utilization rate. 

An important part of what makes an accurate ROI prediction possible is utility rate tariff data, which is where Arcadia’s Signal comes in. Stable leverages Signal to pull in rate tariff data and run calculations comparing different scenarios with various rate tariffs. That way, a company can see what tariffs are available and at what cost at different times. Simply put: Stable can show its customers a much more accurate ROI prediction thanks to the Arc platform. 

When evaluating a new site, Stable works backwards by figuring out what the utilization rate of this site would be had it existed for the last 12 months. With that retrospective context as a baseline, Stable’s software allows users to generate ten-year forecast scenarios.

Impact

Thanks to the way Stable and Signal work together, no one has to do manual calculations on individual sites to determine the economic viability of the next EV charging location. A company or an investor can analyze a thousand sites in just a few hours using Stable, and feel confident that the rate tariff data is an accurate input because it comes from Arcadia. This is a huge step for anyone looking to own, sell, or finance charging infrastructure, and it’s a huge step for everyone looking forward to an electrified future.